Building: Parallel Session 2
Room: E
Date: 2020-10-27 02:45 PM – 04:00 PM
Last modified: 2020-10-19
Abstract
This study aims to determine the fair price for building construction sub-sector using the Discounted Cash Flow method. Determining the fair price of shares is one of the bases for making investment decisions. The phenomenon of the COVID 19 pandemic has resulted in a decline in stock exchanges around the world. It has made investors afraid to invest in stocks. This research can help determine the right time to invest in stocks by determining the fair price of stocks, looking for under-valued stocks and reducing the risk of investing in stocks. The building construction sub-sector is one of the sectors that affect the COVID 19 pandemic. Building construction companies shares have great potential with the plan to relocate the capital city of Indonesia. Are the shares of companies in the building construction sub-sector already undervalued? What is the fair price for the shares in 2020? This study analyzes the stock valuation method that other researchers have not widely studied, namely the discounted cash flow valuation to determine the fair price of shares. This study uses three discounted cash flow models: dividend discount model, free cash flow to equity, and free cash flow. Data from the financial reports of 8 sample companies in the building construction sub-sector were processed using the discounted cash flow method and the mean absolute percentage error. This study's results indicate that the ADHI has a fair price of Rp.1,187; NRCA is a fair price of Rp.309; PTPP has a fair price of Rp.1,557; SSIA is a fair price of Rp. 385; WIKA has a fair price of Rp. 1,948, and WSKT is a fair price of Rp.1.563. The investment decision is to buy, while the issuer JKON has a fair price of Rp 223, and a TOTL of a fair price of Rp 313 overvalued with a suggestion of an investment decision to sell. The decline in stock prices as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic turned out to be making many stocks undervalued so now is the right time to invest in shares of companies that are undervalued and have good fundamentals, because if the economy recovers the stock price will return to price naturally.
Keywords: Stock Fair Price, Discounted Cash Flow, COVID 19, Building Construction, Stock Investment